The Polling Monitor examines public polls in more detail and provides analysis beyond what is currently available to voters, the media, donors, and stakeholders.
We track the performance of each major public pollster in recent election cycles and use that information to present a more accurate interpretation of new polls in 2023 and beyond.
We provide perhaps the most comprehensive database of polls since 2016 and the ability to analyze them by state, race, year, and pollster.
WHAT WE DO
The Polling Monitor analyzes and evaluates published voter surveys conducted by newspapers, networks, academic institutions, and private entities. However, we don't use subjective criteria and methodologies to rate these pollsters and poll sponsors. Instead, we use each entities' ACTUAL historical performance to determine how to interpret new polls they release.
The Polling Monitor uses the track records of each entities' polls starting with the period 2016-2020 to determine how accurate they have been in recent campaigns by comparing their final pre-election poll to the actual election results on a state-by-state basis. We aggregate the polling results for each polling organization in presidential, senate, and gubernational races - state by state - determine what the average differential has been between their polls and the actual election results in each state. We use this differential, which we refer to as the "TPM Adjustment Factor", to interpret 2023 polls from each polling entity in each state.
To demonstrate how we use a pollster’s historic performance to calculate TPM’s “Adjustment Factor” and how we apply it to newly released polls, we will use Quinnipiac’s polling in the state of Georgia. Here is a chart which includes Quinnipiac’s final polls in Georgia races during the 2016—2020 period.
Historical Database of Quinnipiac in Georgia
|Year||Election||Final Poll Date||Final Poll||Republican Candidate||Democrat Candidate||Final Result||Polling Differential|
|2016||Presidential||10/20 - 10/26||+1 Trump||Trump||Clinton||+5.1 Trump||+4.1 Democrat|
|2016||Senate||10/20 - 10/26||+14 Isakson||Isakson||Barksdale||+13.8 Isakson||+0.2 Republican|
|2020||Presidential||10/08 - 10/12||+7 Biden||Trump||Biden||+0.3 Biden||+6.7 Democrat|
|*2020||Senate||10/08 - 10/12||+6 Ossoff||Perdue||Ossoff||+1.8 Perdue||+7.8 Democrat|
Historical polling data yields an “adjustment” factor of + 4.6 Democrat for Quinnipiac in Georgia-- the average difference between Quinnipiac’s final 2016--2020 Georgia polls and the actual election results. TPM will therefore “adjust” every 2022 Quinnipiac poll in Georgia by this + 4.6 Democrat factor to produce TPM’s interpretation of these polls. This is represented as “TPM Adjusted Poll”. Below are three Georgia Quinnipiac polls released in January for 2022 for Senate and Governor which employs the “Adjustment Factor” to create a TPM Adjusted Poll.
2022 Quinnipiac Georgia Polls
"TPM Adjustment Factor" for Quinnipiac in Georgia from 2016-2020 = +4.6 Democrat
|Year||Election||Final Poll Date||Final Poll||Republican Candidate||Democrat Candidate||Adjustment Factor||TPM Adjusted Poll|
|2022||Senate||01/19 - 01/24||+1 Walker||Walker||Warnock||+4.6 Democrat||+5.6 Walker|
|2022||Governor||01/19 - 01/24||+2 Kemp||Kemp||Abrams||+4.6 Democrat||+6.6 Kemp|
|2022||Governor||01/19 - 01/24||Tie||Perdue||Abrams||+4.6 Democrat||+4.6 Kemp|